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But if you go to Vegas and want to try and win as much money as you can, the expected loss on each hand seems like a problem. In both cases they are using special knowledge of the situation to increase the underlying probability of success. Once other investors saw that the Whale left a chance for his investment to go sour, they were able to take actions to exploit this, and caused the event that seemed unlikely to come to pass. Each flip is what mathematicians call an independent event : the outcome of each flip has no impact on the outcome of any other flips. Instead of shifting the downside risk to the tail events, Geismar shifted the upside risk to tail events. But if he were to keep going to Vegas he would lose money in the long run. United States. All that is involved in card counting is exploiting a weakness in the design of the game, although in practice this is extremely difficult to do. After a losing hand he would lower his bet. After hearing Ben Mizrech speak, Geismar was seen using a betting strategy to try and improve his winnings at the blackjack table. Even if you get a run of bad hands in a row, your next hand is still just about as likely to lose as the previous one, similar to the situation with flipping a coin. Directory of sites. By not following their advice, you have around a In fact because the amount you would lose when you get ten bad hands in a row is so catastrophically high, the expected amount you win overall is still negative. There are two main ways to legally attempt to overcome the fact that each hand on average loses you a bit of money. Just to be clear, despite having perhaps been inspired by Mizrech, this betting strategy is not at all the same as card counting. Discover Thomson Reuters. Alternatively, when a bank sets up a hedge against one of their investments, they are trying to decrease the number of possible outcomes in which they lose money. Only one of these methods actually works. You can either change the odds to be in your favor, or you can try and change your bet amounts to make it less likely you will lose. If they both drop in price, the short on Google will cancel out the losses on Microsoft. The only way not make of money is to lose 10 straight hands in a row, and since losing 10 straight hands in a row is extremely unlikely, you expect to almost always make the dollar you were hoping for. The two methods of trying to adjust the outcome of the game have parallels in investing.

I jumped at the chance. Felix Salmon.

While there are many different rule sets for blackjack depending on the casino, the core game is generally the same: the payout, if you win, is the same as your wager, unless the player has a blackjack — a face card and an ace — in which case the payout is one and a half times the wager. So enjoy:. So to try and overcome the house edge, they will try to cleverly alter the amount they are betting on each hand. But at this point, to get the same level of return as investing in just Microsoft, they will have to increase their leverage. If you win you do walk away, but if you lose you bet two dollars. Over time this betting strategy is expected to lose Geismar money, just like all other betting strategies. As a culture, we should be trying to ensure that the people making financial decisions are looking to do more of the former and less of the latter, especially given the systemic consequences of recent catastrophic market collapses. A betting strategy, or a martingale, is a set of rules to determine how much a player should bet on each hand to try and compensate for previous wins or loses. Unless you watch them play, there is really no way for you to know if they are actually changing the game like the MIT students, or if they are just employing a betting strategy and at some point will lose all of your money. By changing the structure of the game, you can make it that your average hand has a positive return. This was famously done by a group of MIT students using a method called card counting. The MIT students counted the number of face cards that had been seen already to estimate what proportion of remaining cards were face cards. This lack of information is a problem for clients trying to get a good return from a bank, and also a problem for banks CEOs trying to ensure their company has a good return. Another way to try and overcome the expected loss on each hand by having the casino change the rules for you. Assuming the player always takes the best possible action, for every dollar they bet in a round they should lose around half a cent. This is analogous to how the MIT team was trying to predict how a hand of blackjack will play out before it gets dealt. For example the bank may hedge its investment in Microsoft by shorting Google. This betting strategy has the opposite effect the one described before; instead of having a single win wipe out previous losses, a single loss will wipe out much of the earlier winnings. On most sequences of hands Geismar would lose money, but occasionally he will have an unlikely winning streak and make a very large amount. Like most stories dealing with probability, this one starts with a coin flip. Increasing the chances of winning improves the amount you should expect as payout. If you only place bets when the deck is to your advantage then you can make yourself money. The fallacy comes from the confusion between the long run outcome with a large enough sample size, I expect half of my coin flips to be heads and half to be tails and the outcome on any one flip since I have seen a bunch of heads before, I need to start getting tails to balance things out in the long run. Your spouse suggests you just play one hand and if you lose then walk away, but you have a better idea in mind. Shifting the risk makes it so that most of the time you get a good payout, but every once and a while you lose catastrophically. If you lose twice in a row you bet four dollars, if you lose three times in a row you bet eight dollars, and you continue to double your bet until you get a win. When there are mostly face cards and aces remaining in shoe then the player is actually at a slight advantage to the dealer. The amount Geismar was betting was unrelated to the proportion of face cards remaining the deck; it was only changed by the numbers of wins and losses he had seen. What are the chances that the eleventh flip will also be heads? On your first hand you bet a single dollar. Once the bank has increased their leverage, this becomes similar to the betting strategy in blackjack. When there were a high proportion of face cards left in the shoe they would make large bets.